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Table 3 Multi-level models investigating the factors associated with AAV relapse risk

From: The association between ambient UVB dose and ANCA-associated vasculitis relapse and onset

 

Latitude

Average winter (2004–2019)

Average annual vitD-UVB

CW-D-UVB at symptom onset

Preceding winter

vitD-UVB

CW-D-UVB

vitD-UVB

CW-D-UVB

Model 1

Model 2

Model 3

Model 4

Model 5

Model 6

Model 7

Random effects (variance (SD))

 Patient ID

0.55 (0.75)

0.56 (0.75)

0.57 (0.76)

0.60 (0.78)

0.64 (0.80)

0.59 (0.77)

0.54 (0.74)

Fixed effects (OR (95% CI, p))

 Latitude (degrees)

1.41 (1.14–1.74, 0.002)

 Average winter vitDUVB (kJ/m2)

0.71 (0.57–0.89, 0.002)

0.90 (0.74–1.10, 0.31)

 Average winter CWD-UVB (kJ/m2)

0.74 (0.60–0.91, 0.005)

0.81 (0.66–0.99, 0.04)

 Average annual vitDUVB (kJ/m2)

0.82 (0.70–0.99, 0.04)

 CW-D-UVB at symptom onset (kJ/m2)

1.06 (0.88–1.28, 0.52)

 Not MPA (ref: MPA)

1.78 (1.03–3.05, 0.04)

1.72 (1.00–2.96, 0.05)

1.75 (1.01–3.01, 0.05)

1.74 (1.01–3.02, 0.048)

1.79 (1.02–3.13, 0.04)

1.78 (1.03–3.10, 0.04)

1.78 (1.03–3.07, 0.04)

 Age at diagnosis (years)

0.75 (0.61–0.92, 0.006)

0.74 (0.60–0.90, 0.004)

0.74 (0.60–0.91, 0.004)

0.73 (0.60–0.90, 0.004)

0.73 (0.59–0.90, 0.003)

0.74 (0.60–0.90, 0.004)

0.74 (0.60–0.90, 0.004)

 Gender (male)

0.93 (0.61–1.41, 0.73)

0.92 (0.61–1.39, 0.70)

0.91 (0.60–1.38, 0.67)

0.91 (0.60–0.90, 0.64)

0.90 (0.60–1.38, 0.65)

0.91 (0.60–1.37, 0.65)

0.91 (0.60–1.37, 0.65)

 Not MPO-ANCA (ref: MPO-ANCA)

1.10 (0.64–1.86, 0.74)

1.10 (0.65–1.88, 0.72)

1.10 (0.64–1.87, 0.74)

1.10 (0.64–1.89, 0.73)

1.08 (0.63–1.87, 0.77)

1.08 (0.63–1.86, 0.77)

1.08 (0.63–1.83, 0.79)

 Off treatment (ref: On treatment)

2.65 (1.70–4.14, < 0.001)

2.65 (1.70–4.13, < 0.001)

2.66 (1.70–4.16, < 0.001)

2.66 (1.70–4.17, < 0.001)

2.62 (1.68–4.11, < 0.001)

2.65 (1.70–4.14, < 0.001)

2.64 (1.70–4.11, < 0.001)

 Number of individuals

439

439

439

439

439

439

439

 Number of observations

2080

2080

2080

2080

2080

2077

2077

  1. N (individuals) differs from N (observations) as multiple observations (remission ± relapse) per individual were included, according to each participant’s disease course
  2. The odds ratios (OR, 95% CI, p value) are reported. The OR refers to the probability of having an AAV relapse (relative to remission)
  3. Model 1 investigates the effect of latitude, adjusted for age at diagnosis, gender, AAV phenotype, ANCA serotype and treatment
  4. Model 2 investigates the effect of average winter (December to February) vitD-UVB (2004–2019), adjusted for age at diagnosis, gender, AAV phenotype, ANCA serotype and treatment
  5. Model 3 investigates the effect of average winter (December to February) CW-D-UVB (2004–2019), adjusted for age at diagnosis, gender, AAV phenotype, ANCA serotype and treatment
  6. Model 4 investigates the effect of average annual vitD-UVB, adjusted for age at diagnosis, gender, AAV phenotype, ANCA serotype and treatment
  7. Model 5 investigates the effect of CW-D-UVB at symptom onset, adjusted for age at diagnosis, gender, AAV phenotype, ANCA serotype and treatment
  8. Model 6 investigates the effect of average vitD-UVB over the preceding winter, adjusted for age at diagnosis, gender, AAV phenotype, ANCA serotype and treatment
  9. Model 7 investigates the effect of average CW-D-UVB over the preceding winter, adjusted for age at diagnosis, gender, AAV phenotype, ANCA serotype and treatment
  10. vitD-UVB ambient UVB dose at wavelengths than induce vitD synthesis, CW-D-UVB cumulative-weighted UVB dose, SD standard deviation, MPA microscopic polyangiitis, MPO myeloperoxidase, OR odds ratio, 95% CI 95% confidence interval